Where is “The Real Chance” of a Double-dip Recession?

Indeed, rationality says that there is some chance of a recession along with few questionable probabilities. And arguably there are certain clinical manifestations and diagnostic symptoms that points to a highly perceivable recession looming across the US and the Europe. Consider many circumstances. The economic state of affairs isn’t doing well with faltering economic recovery and job growth rate which has fallen bellow previous records. We are waiting for the NBER academic review of a probable recession as of late. They are doing this for the last eight decades ever since “Wesley Mitchell” started to analyze business cycles by around 1916 and he was the front runner of measuring business cycle timings as well of the term BRICS-about 80 years ago (Jeffrey Sachs actually didn’t invented the term BRICS- he rather innovated Mitchell’s concept!). What a great foreseer who foresaw nearly 100 years ahead of his business days!

Coming “directly to the point” and without inventing parables, I would say, one of the prime real indicators of a probable modern economic recession is perhaps and without doubt- the stagnating FFR, or the Federal Funds Rate. This unique yet powerful Federal Reserve instrument (interest rate) after declining for more than a couple of years since 2008 isn’t moving upwards at all. And here lay the hidden problem!

The FFR rate should have moved by April or say, June by most this year (2011), which it did not! And I was alarmed by the fact that if this trend continues for another 2-3 months more, it can profoundly spell a rebound recessive doom for the OECD economies. And that’s what it is technically lingering right now!

Some interesting connotations;
The FFR touched a formidable low at 1% on June 29th 2004, at the peak of the great credit boom, when, the then Fed governor Mr. Greenspan kept the policy rate indicatively low during the period of 2002-2003. This ultralow rate scenario fuelled credit boom, we all know that. Well, it was a causal effect to cushion the economy from the dotcom bubble burst of 2000. Indeed, that helped revive the American market economy from the aftermath of the first millennium crash (dotcom). The FFR started its journey high up in the air from August 9th 2004, when it was increased by 0.25% bps. Symbolically, the FFR peaked incrementally to 5.25% at the mid of September 17th, 2007 say, when Mr. Bernanke took over as Fed Chairman just a year before from Mr. Greenspan. It’s quite interesting to note that the FFR rate also peaked to 9% during 1987-1988. Questions arise of whether this high FFR rate did actually precipitate the 1987 market crash, since, there are no other potential predisposing factors being found yet, and I “can’t” answer that (which is beyond my cognizance).

If that’s so, then it’s the rate hike which peaked (5.25%) during the September 2007 and this was “the time” when markets globally started to become volatile, and write-downs and default news circulated throughout the USA.

Speaking in the “wind” won’t do any good, so one requires backing up with some clear facts.
And the fact is; it’s time for some “reality show” in economics!

My question is-

Who’s the “d.g” who moved the rate and messed up things? Why did they take that bold decision to raise the interest rate and that too, based on what rationality? Or was it inevitable and beyond human control? Why it went up so much and now why is it stagnating? Who’s gonna answer?

Now, it’s exactly four years from today, when the rate peaked, as well, exactly 3 years since the Lehman Bros went bust on September 13th. What a strange coincidence!

Nevertheless, those ensuing rate increases set-off uncompromising adjustments in amortization schedules of subprime loans extended on lax documentations to less creditworthy individuals, who found it comparatively difficult to pay back the installments as well as the interest payments all due to intricacies in Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM) settings, a common story with which we all are familiar.

You may find more about these from a beautiful paper written by Gary Gorton from the NBER in 2008.

The “crux” of the matter is however, to pin down on the main culprit-here, the FFR rate or “the d..” and some evidence I have provided that might be of some interest to the readers, just to tag the main villain-Federal Fund Market Rate. And that isn’t moving; since there is no ensuing inflation target and if this particular trend goes through October this year, I may well assume that there is a “sure shot” recession in the line. Comparably better, Euro zone is at least experiencing some dynamicity in its ECB policy rates (due to some inflation targeting).
This is the reason I am rhetorically shouting as an inflation hawk, to see some real dynamicity in the FFR rate. That would do just good enough to stall a double-dip recession, from my viewpoint.

The rest is-well, Mr. Bernanke knows.

The inherent risk of raising it too quickly yet again may result in counter-calamity similar to one above. What a dreadful trap it is- and where is the way out?

President Obama has a trademark answer. His oratory proposal of including an expansion of a cut in payroll taxes- and the much awaited mission on new spending on public works carving out $447 bn through 2012 may help infuse some “life” in the FFR rate and the economy. Well, only if it goes through in full part and parcel!

Else, there’s every possibility that a recession is too near at hand. There’s nothing to get bunged up however. And even if you don’t really need a PhD to buck up those things like business cycles, neither it requires you to be a financial geek. It’s that simple as ups and downs in our life cycle.
This is business cycle. Good old stories retold in new flavors. It’s gonna get moving as life goes on...they are looking at it, kid.

Sources: NY Times.

Politics of the Public Divided by Questions of Austerity and Affluence

Take it easy. Ease, easing makes it easier.

If they would have done those “easiest” things before, just by making things easier for (by bailing out) Lehman Bros and all those in the great line of fire back in the summer of September 2008, things would have been different today!

And now, that’s what the Fed actually is doing by instituting Episcopal policy of buying long-term debt which you may call “quantitative easing”. Perhaps, there are no other better options at hand and in practice. Get the economy moving, let the people borrow and set the platform where people unhoard cash and invest in productivity. Paying up such a great price for past indecisiveness!

One strange coincidence-sooner Greenspan left started the economic and financial firestorms!
Actually, this was what attempted by the Bank of Japan, quite unconventionally, but it did in fact some good job in the early 2000. And it was masterminded by the very same economist that we know today, Mr. Ben Bernenke, to whom we often entitle with adoration- Big Ben.

So, I am not much “optimistic” about those views and tell you why it might not work out in identical way, since; both are quite different economies; though they now seem to converge on a common theme- deflation trap. The commonalities are remarkably identical. Both Japan and the USA have ultra-low interest rates, both are not growing and both do not have any substantial inflation. Only, Japan scores better in employment and job creation, even in these hard times (Japanese unemployment rate @4.1%).

Rather, I am quite optimistically agreeable to Mr. Andrew Ross Sorkin’s ideas, a columnist of IHT who has quite fittingly noted that tax breaks wouldn’t help much. Let’s see why.

It is impulsively cheeky to conceive that tax breaks will help create new jobs. Betting on temporary tax cuts as a tool to combat unemployment and stimulate growth is not an ideal option anyway. That might primarily risk in tax revenue losses-which, the govt. is already losing money in all sides and from most corners (through bail-out programs)! But there is a compromise too. Well, this sounds tricky- as it would create an environment where every company would ask for tax breaks in future for a job- and in return, carving a niche to evade the radars of taxmen. Rather, what Obama administration has geared up for, say, pay-roll tax holidays to incentivize hiring? This sounds tricky too!

What a pity for the foreseers that would have them forced to observe this doomster side of the story- incentivizing employers to give employment. Well, not a bad idea, since, special programs have been underway as SEZ’s and as others’ in the emerging economies with great success-but not anything like this kind of horse-trading! The US govt. is in the line of begging jobs from the corporate sector for the sake of economic growth. What if even after such tax breaks they don’t hire quoting bleak business environment?

The sheer reality is; businesses tend to hire only when there is some business. And there is some business since there are demand for goods and services. And this “demand” comes from the consumers who opt to buy those services, and only when, they have enough discretionary savings (money and credit)!

So, I don’t see tax policy as a covenant tool to fight the malady of unemployment, yet, it is powerful enough to make the balance of statements go either way for other causes.

Back to the real story;

So, three things require get to be going “moved” if we really are to hope for some authentic change. First, inflation, and that would bring back growth(and with that if not jobs, then it would be terrible!), second, dynamicity in rates, and last but not the least of all, give a free hand to the Fed to use it’s interest rate choreographic tools and machineries to target inflation when that breaks the fence. To speak of, let’s talk about inflation hawks.

Those measures have seen rolling back the Japanese economy into growth path which foresaw a 25% rally in the Nikkei in 2003, the same year when Germany went into a recession. But things cooled off much faster, and in a much worst silhouette. When the world markets started to rally, the Japanese economy plunged back into a terrible stagflation from the beginning of 2007, and from which, it never regained which saw 3 Japanese Prime Ministers in and out of the game within a span of four years. Political chaos swapped economic doldrums. Who wants that in the long run- do you Mr. Krugman?

I think, Mr. Krugman might have perceived that those Fed announcements were rather awful.
So, the effect was rather transient and unsustainable. The reason I doubt what good would it do this time! Consider the scenario.

The strength, tenacity and resilience of the US economy seem to have disappeared. Even Big Ben’s rhetorical speech at the recently concluded annual Fed gathering at Jackson Hole failed to infuse renewed interests in the economy. Mr. Paul Krugman rightly embarked that the policy announcements are not in line and lacked substantive goals. The political as well as the economic ‘think tanks’ are thus struggling hard to envision an ideal economic policy path that may chart future growth prospects of the ailing economy plagued by uncertainty and despair. Some ideal growth-oriented policy shifts are required, and there is indeed urgency for that. Political opposition has almost crippled fiscal policy, according to great many policy makers. Markets are oscillating in a see-saw fashion, and volatility has become much trendy. Businesses are apprehensive of whether a repeat of 2008 is in the line. And job-holders are anxious about what appraisals would come in their way. While the East looks at the giant Western economy with few last hopes of any acts of extraordinary.

So, what has all this got to do with the job market? More Austerity measures- an easy answer. Note that Greece is already holed up austere ring!

With the scrambling economy and the uncertain macro-fundamentals, pink slips and layoffs are silently becoming symbolic these days. More than a dozen large banks in the United States have nearly lost faith in a growth rebound story told and retold many a times, and even with a historically low interest rates, bank lending has been depressed so far- a substantial source of bank revenue. Trading in volatile markets is expensive, and thus to maintain competitiveness, they have embarked on programs aimed at cutting operating costs and have emblematically announced layoffs as cost cutting initiatives that may further compound the problem of unemployment.

So, what did the Fed actually do to tackle the problem of fiscal melancholy? They are in fact going for quantitative easing policy. Can’t place a blame game here and above. They have indeed a very few policy options on balance. And measuring the efficacy of those is taking much time-precious enough to act on immediacy. But as Mr. Krugman has emphasized, Mr. Bernanke could have deviated from those orthodox measures which would have presented a different scenario had been he given enough freedom to embark on some unorthodox policies (say, PRP, or public reconstruction program-backed bond issuance- I would tell you, they would sell well as like China!). But something is holding on to that freedom- and which is almost killing the last few hopes of economic recovery, according to Mr. Krugman, and I really agree on this, and do thank him for such rhetoric expositions. But the reality of the fact is we cannot believe in what we see often; that this could ever have happened right in the US heartland- and that too ideally in the land of ultimate freedom as the Statue of Liberty stands aloft on the Liberty Island across the Manhatten.

Freedom of thinking, in actions and in policy making is what that is destined for every central bank established with those motives in place. And political firestorm and backlashes have cut down that freedom to act independently, and in demand as and when the situation calls for. This is not central banking- rather, eco-political despotism. The Fed, if given that independency could have unveiled new policies however unorthodox that might help lift the US economy from the ever depressing state of low demand and high unemployment.

As Prof. Krugman has mentioned, America is now very much in a Japan-like economic booby trap. I have also mentioned this a few days ago just before the Fed announcements. That the Fed has a lot of tools (stuffs), but most of them are limited in activity, except the great “FFR”. God knows when they will find their own righteous place (both Mr. Bernenke and his FFR).

· There are very few proponents of growth oriented policy practices and a great many opponents of those however; yet, there is hardly any promoter of economic stimulus thus so far...except Mr. Krugman.

Whoever had started the “tax-fire wall” back in 2004, they will require it to douse it someday or run for cover- I can only tell you this, not more. Better listen to Billy Joel’s oldies... “We didn’t start the fire...” and the debate will go on.

Keep reading.

Some “Hard Decisions” and “Soft Bargains”...

I don’t fully agree with the author’s view published in an article yesterday in NY Times News Services. The author may be right on some aspects, but I have something more to point out. The US economy suffers from under-savings- that’s what I mean. They might have spent much, but saved too less. Those spending- quite rightly pointed out by the author, may be ascribed to military expenditures or homeland securities which however, can be well justified given the post 9/11 security concerns. But on healthcare, it’s like an odd-even puzzle. Can’t say those were too wasteful either.

Well so, things aren’t going as though they seems to be somewhere between a ‘tough bargain for a simple deal’. That was all mandated, and all which was required to keep ticking the hopes of a turnaround show. But to speak, The Whitehouse now seems to have become the hotbed for some diplomatic DJs. Indeed, perhaps they could go all the Gaga way...for some good music.

The economy continues to weaken. Productivity is slowing down. It’s not that about always having a whole piece of cake.

And not even that of forever having some good luck. It’s about morality which even a moron knows well.

• Indeed, President Obama still occupies important place in the hearts of the millions, not only in America, but in the entire world. And so is the reason he is trying hard to bring in some change-both in policies and practices. These days, he has but very few options except for a dip in the pink, well, you need to go into debt first. That’s the norm these days, yet unavoidable.
What is avoidable and can be averted is-a ‘hard luck’ for America from ever hanging in an innovation and productivity shortfall, as also, to avert a potential disinflationary shock. Well, let’s go a little deeper, down the line, a few decades ago, and review how things got fared up in those fair days.

USA had experienced post-war high unemployment rate a couple of times earlier, so it’s not unusual, and it peaked from 6% to 10.5% by the mid 1982. What was unusual was that, inflation was already double digit by 1979!

That was Volcker era, and he left a legacy. For three years following 1979-1982, the ultimate policy target of the Fed was to contain inflation. Well, inflation though did come down to 5%, but unemployment rate rose to double digit (10%). One retort led to another facade!

So what did the Fed try?

Under Fed Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, they returned to previous interest-rate operating maneuvers and initiated a managed program which reduced unemployment rate to 6%. A decade and a half later, it was 4.7% by 1997, at the same time, when the Euro zone unemployment rate stood at 12% (even now, they aren’t better off yet). So, what brought down the rate? Did they “pass-off” the triad to Europe? Well again, this assumption is moronic.

Actually, the expansionary monetary policy of the Fed during the 1972 led to inflationary build-up. Following this, there were two oil-price shocks- from 1973-74 and 1978-79. But before that, the Vietnam War led to price acceleration due to demand surge. And the counter-inflationary monetary policies led to four successive recessions, starting from the summer of 1969 to most notably of the 1972-76.

So, if on one hand easy monetary policy led to inflation, countering that led to high unemployment rate on the other. And yet again, you need to be back on the same track. But things took different shape from the beginning of the new millennium. Low interest rate, coupled with low inflation triggered a huge credit boom. And when the rates rose, everything fell off. And it’s heading for a stagflation right now which actually never happened in the USA before.

So far, and so well. The Fed seems to be already “fed-up” playing the cat-and-mouse game of “chasingflation”- once inflation, then again unemployment rate, and yet again disinflation. The Fed nowadays is just hoping for 'baby one more time- come back inflation' and we will do the rest! But now, Dr. Bernanke is more concerned with the macro-economic stability for the time being, after so much of economic and financial market chaos. Note that he is armed with a more powerful economic but rather diplomatic stuff- the Fed Fund Rate.

• Dr. Bernanke belongs to the aristocracy of those star economists who have under their credit more than a dozen publications on the cause and effects of recession. So, it’s good to see that the whole of his tenure as Fed Chairmanship has been much devoted to experiencing what a grand recession feels like in practice.

So, it’s a great paradox of who will win the next election? But that doesn’t mean to give up to the political chores. Whoever wins, rationality has to be restored. Since, the synonym (other meaning) of the word “Republican” means “Democracy”, so, that’s all about the two face of a single coin. And that’s democracy after all, in a re-elected republic state. President Obama isn’t happy at all with all those diplomatic leg-pulling politics well adapted by the Republicans, to which, he accused them of holding back developmental initiatives.

Well, I don’t believe this, neither do I doubt.

Still, someone might have learned somehow, something from Anna Hazare- only, the place and the cause isn’t so cogent. But the timing was perfect.

Even if the global markets are fighting among themselves for more genial financial innovation and reforms, the real reform perhaps awaits from the general mass of America, through her people and practice.

Put that all together, you may still get a full one and a year half to observe how things get going, either gaga way, or a way out. The politico may have to take very often, rough and tough decisions, rather few “hard decisions” with some “soft bargains” just to make sure that America doesn’t fall back into an extra double-dip recession( a giant recession with a smaller one free!), and this cannot be some discount shopping anyway, since that would be too awful for the global economy at large.

A New Indian dream

Today is our Independence Day. This is a very special day for each and every Indian, whether at home or abroad. Exactly 64 years ago, our country got liberated from the British Empire. And from then on, we started to move on a new path with new hope, leaving behind the agony of being ruled by colonial power-Britain. Our forefathers and freedom fighters left for us a beautiful country spanning from the Himalayas in the north to the Kanyakumari in the south, from Gujarat in the west to the far eastern province of Arunachal Pradesh to Mizoram, and so is our National Anthem “Jana gana mana” covering each and every state and provinces of this great motherland. Today, we sing our “National Anthem” with full vigor that holds more than our billion souls together on a same string of love, peace, forgiveness, equality and liberty. This day, let us pay homage to those great freedom fighters, who are but our great forefathers, and who selflessly sacrificed their lives to liberate our country from Britain.

Freedom is Independence, and Independence is Freedom!
Freedom is the most essential element of our life, as also, for our country. From the shackles of bondage, while turning back the pages of our eternal history, reveals our freedom fighters among many, Mangal Pandey, Rani Laxmibai of Jhansi, Shahid Bhagat Singh, Khudiram, Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose and others who fought bravely for this great country, gave up their life and died fighting valiantly, taking bullets and gallows smiling all the way to reach the heaven of martyrdom. They did this because they thought for us, our new generations, and generations to come, and for this very freedom and independence which we have today, so that, our life will be free from oppression and suppression from the colonial power-Britain, and also because, we can think independently, and work autonomously, which we do today.

Today is our day to be reunited again, by the common melody of harmony and accord, joy and happiness and today is the day to reckon that our independence came after much agony and pain, we lost our greater parts of Bengal and Punjab, forever, following the partition. But again, this is also not the time to look back, but to look ahead for a better India, more prosperous, united and shining with splendor and magnificence while keeping our past hardships in the cover.
From that very auspicious day, August the 15th 1947, we started thinking independently, for us and our nation, collectively. And today, we ought to take that initiative again and reignite our soul to think united for a better India, full of opportunities and new prospects, as our country is racing past the time in full vigor, both economically, and politically.

India today is differently afresh, politically matured, and filled with vigor and potency, undeterred yet committed, firm yet flexible, competent and proficient, with our talent skillful and adept enough with our billion souls boasting just one “single unique dream- The New Indian Dream” that would fulfill those billion dreams. A dream that was dreamt by many, and now, it’s time to turn those into full reality. Nothing can stop India from achieving what other big league countries have achieved.

Our country is at the forefront of the world economy, with 8.5% GDP growth and a GDP on PPP basis at $3.5 trillion, the eleventh largest in the world by output, and third largest by purchasing power parity. This will soon double within no time.

Today, we can think about doing and achieving what any other nation in this world can do. We can also think about doing what others cannot even afford to do. That’s our ability spanning from our deep-rooted history of endurance through hard labour. This arrival on the global platform is different from our past. This is a new day, with new hopes, and no despair, but only bloom and blossom and let the world see what is happening in India, why is there so much of an “Indian Phenomenon”? And in no less time, India will not only catch up, but beat every other “equal” in terms of economic leadership and prosperity, in knowledge and in technology.

So how can one describe India?
Behold this great land of the people who worship Lord Shiva and start their day with a Sun Bath every dawn. India, yes, the mystic land of beauty where the Himalayas abode as the crown of this golden land, and where the Holy Ganges purifies the heart and soul of this ancient “land of the earliest civilization”, and where the oceans and seas washes the feet of this mystic land. Yes, this is our “Incredible India”! A country with a history as old as the history of the world itself, civilizations that was enlightened from the very beginning of sunrise and the country which taught the lessons of love, tolerance, peace, politics, medicine and economics, and what not? In effect, India boasts the largest diversity of her kind both in her ecosystem and her people, yet, united by the rhythmic string of a common song of love and eternal bond with her past legacy and her present people, to her future endeavors. Diverse food habits, customs and practices provide one an entirely unique ground for an inquisitive mind to go deeper inside the heart and soul of this GreatLand and unleash the treasure that this country boasts. India is never truly discovered unless one goes deep into the plain-land of this country, deep enough inside the country-life of Indian villagers which offers the only one-of-its kind in this planet.

About our Cultural and Anthropological Past:
Our Heritage:
Our heritage lies in our deep-rooted treasure-the origin of our knowledge, Veda and Bhagabat Gita that taught us morality, principles and ethics, gave us philosophy and adorned our minds with innumerable jewels that could be found only in this heartland for centuries. Yet, we take pride that we accept others views and adorn secularity in the matter of faith and religion. No matter, whether you are a Hindu, Muslim, Christian or Sikh, or Buddhist and Jains or Jews or Parsis, we invite all and accept all their belief, since, from a point of true intellectuality, it is very difficult to draw even a fine line among any religion, because, they all teach the same! And that is tolerance.

This country is the birthplace of some of the great sages of the ages, and of great personalities adorned far and wide, from the Far East to the Far west, and from polar north to the poles of south, and it is India, who taught the world about non-violence and so we have great leaders like Emperor Asoka and Mahatma Gandhi. And so is the birthplace of Gautama Buddha and his preaching’s in Buddhism, followed widely all across the world. And so we are proud to have great reformers in Swami Vivekananda, Bal Gangadhar Tilak, Raja Rammohan Roy, Dr. Rajendra Prasad, Motilal Nehru , Jawaharlal Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar and Rishi Arobindo, among others.

It was a time when the world looked at India, through her excellence in education and knowledge, from far and wide as is evident from relics of Nalanda University (which is soon to be reopened). It is again that the West and the rest- of the world are looking at India again(look India policy), for the immense opportunities that she presents to the world, and share those in equitable vanity.

Indeed there are some problems of inequality and poverty, but these can all be overcome by the collective effort and participative role of all the Indians and to keep alive those dreams, and turn those into reality about -a New Indian dream.

“Jai Hind” and "Jai Ho...."

Is there a future without growth?

I doubted it. This was palpable, but in reality, not palatable. So, questions are invariably being raised on the issue of reliance on ratings and the rating agencies in regulation and for investment mandates.

And that’s not trifling nevertheless. The inebriated public borrowing practices of the US government that led to this ‘debt trap’ cannot but, invite downgrade and that was apparent. So I’m not surprised.

What I am surprised is at; the policy makers are up to some game planning that is undermining the theory of economic growth. They are fantasizing about a future without growth!

The social conception of unemployment has changed much since the last millennium. Now, the art of thinking about growth needs to be examined from a different perspective, given the regular bouts of business cycle fluctuations. And somehow, that equilibrium needs to be quickly restored.

See, you do all sorts of dim-witted things and expect people to admire you-that’s ridiculous! Actually, the ratings agencies did that exactly before the credit crisis. Well, they never expected those things that they call financial innovation (the mortgage-backed securities traded as wind and air-backed instruments) could take ugly shape, and few of them understood the intricacies, payoffs, risks inherent and details of those securitized designs. That was venture pollution, or rather speculative smog and the SEC is working hard to clean-off the haze. Inevitably, that required huge investments, rather bailout programs costing billions of much wanted greenbacks, thus making it weaker.

And now, they won’t do it again. Well, there is no payoff anyway. Mr. Bernanke is stuck to the great idea of zero-percent fed fund rate policy, just to stave off inflation that is never going to happen in the US, well, for the time being. However, in one way or other, these recent episodes will at least dampen global purchase of US debt. Mr. Bernanke since long time is strictly focusing on reviving the economy from a phenomenon known as Stagflation- a very common trend in Japan. Note that Japan’s debt is around 189% of their GDP, the highest so far. They lead them all (in the matter of debt). The toxic recombination of slow growth and high debt does worry everyone concerned with the economy since; Japan is still not out of it (the stagflation) even after a decade. Once, if the US is deeply ever into it, that’s sure to stunt the economy back into some spiraling no-growth-little-inflation story, at least for the next 10-15 years. That’s a bad bet anyhow.

But how is all that helping the American economy anyway? Is it creating enough jobs, bringing down unemployment levels or stimulating business sentiment or credit growth and uptake? The unemployment rate is stubbornly high at 9.1%.

Is there a future without growth?

A package of austerity becomes more painful during hard-times, we all know. It is not a takeaway piecemeal. What could have been imposed rather- enforcing the private sector to shoulder some of the burden of debt restructuring and their participation would ensure that they understand and respect what a debt crisis really means (People like Madoff). And that’s not just extending bailout funds to rescue those deeply indebted. There is something more than that- responsibility and restraint.

Everything works well during boom times. Things are taken as granted, even if they seem to be murkier. So did the happy business of credit therapy and leverage spas. They mushroomed all over the Wall-Street, in hidden alleys and gloomy corners. They did some brisk business. But those were so fair times!

Time is different now, and more precious than money. And it is running out.

America doesn’t have a labor centric jobs-for-votes electorate system, as like Greece or India. But that seems to be changing now. The recent Reuter/Ipsos poll proves that. As much as 73% of the results say that US is on the wrong track. As Ipsos pollster Julia Clark summed it up with a beautiful moral-“When the economy is bad, people look for a Change”. And so, there’s much to worry about a reelection campaign for the Nobel Prize winner President Obama who will be seeking a second term. The balance of power is tilting slowly against all odds. Now, it seems that the Republicans too aren’t as popular as they used be before the debt deal negotiations. So, what’s the third option?

Learn from Chindia! Cheekooo!!!

Well, there is at least one common principle among the Chinese. They don’t think too much about what has happened!

Things destined to happen has already occurred. No use in churning back those gone-by episodes. You can’t change your past, yet you can make a huge difference in your future, and so, they try to make their present as memorable as possible. They work hard to achieve those. Americans will have to work harder, even more than they used to, to put their house in order.
Expect a new decade of cheaper “Made in Wonderland-(America)” products flooding the world markets. Those would be much cheaper than China I can tell you! And better off course.

As for us Indians, we do not used to think too much as well complicated and hence, we seldom play with risk. However, we do think too much about what went wrong and do spend half of our life lamenting about those episodes. So, we are rather half-way down the line between US and China. Yet, for the Chinese, they have a huge appetite for victuals, but a very small one for their hard-earned money. That’s the reason they invest in risk free productive assets (they invest in labor-intensive industry, having the highest number of SEZ per country in the world) and hence savings rate more (savings rate @54% of GDP). Same goes with us, Indians, the exception being, we do not invest humanly in productivity and yet, saving rate is still one of the highest (savings rate @35.7% of GDP) - due to over-regulated labour market, and off course, economic growth!
As for the Americans, ahoy, they followed an entirely innovative trend- invest all your money in risky assets and just do the job of counting your chicken before they hatch. Hey, that’s funny.

The reason they are working hard to count those ever burgeoning national debt and the clock is still ticking! In terms of savings rate, Japan and Germany are still better off, both at 26% of GDP, compared to USA’s 13%.

That’s a different way of thinking after all! And the reason that is why it is; America-the Wonderland! They took the risk, which did pay off in those good times and the economy is still now by far the largest. A huge, complex economy is sure to have many intricacies, a few hiccoughs can occur, and problems can indeed get too tricky. A few sneezes from the US, and the rest of the world is destined to catch cold.

So now, rather than thinking too far beyond temporal domains, they have much important work on too near at hand to clean up the mess.

Nobody desires a ghost economy!

Is this a "Fair Deal"?

“Science the Endless Frontier”-Do you remember? At least, one Bush was correct.

We had two Hot wars, one Cold war, well, this War is freezing!

So well, so it’s over. And that’s for the time being. The stalemate was broken, albeit with some compromise. The debt ceiling was raised, just-in-time. Save the last word-default.

This episode reminds me of a Roman Polanski film. Always somewhere, there tends to remain something sort of a fiscal mess. And somehow, it gets ignored.

So, the new question that certainly lingers in our capacitive mind is- are there any possibilities of a growth rebound in the US? After so much of traumatic deliberations and anxious moments of despair and hope, when we see a certain glimpse of light that offer us some optimism, that’s sure to boost up our expectations. Expectations that hang around in our mind -is of a better tomorrow, about winds of fresh reforms, those sunbathed and tanned brown enough to glitter as golden twilights at the end of the day. Visit snookville, you will feel it!

But all that glitter is not gold. True it is- as an old saying. Considering the structure of the deal, with some cuts here and there to cover budget expenses and trim down expenditures, that doesn’t really seem to be an extraordinary deal. As was evident by the subsequent downgrade by S&P (some others are in the line) that’s however, may not be a great concern for investors. There had to be some concessions anyway, yet, it was tough enough to bargain.

But was there anything stimulating? Perhaps not!
A Tea party break;

The effort should have aimed, in part, for some growth-minded fiscal consolidation, similar to one that of Canada. That means, cutting spending judiciously and not to burden the already overburdened taxpayers. This is roughly striking a deal to avoid default just to borrow more! What was required is to reignite the old economy with a new spark plug.

And that’s what was done following the WWII. That time, the requirement was Investment in education and ‘Blue Skies Research’ to regenerate ‘quality capital’- human and technological, both. That’s what led to the origin of genetics and stem cell of which we talk much about today. What is required now, rather than cutting funding in fundamental research, reallocate and ‘flush’ the education system with new capital.

This would in time ripe enough to generate innovation and entrepreneurship (growth), new product, leadership, and technology development, which means (more business) and technology leverage. That was the goal of that report. And that should have been now, yet again!

One can’t expect a workforce to end up doing job like “counting of national public debt” forever. The debt clock in Times Square will do that.

It is always a better option to “leverage” technology as far as possible, for scientific research rather than leveraging liquidity for financial gains. Someday, that liquidity may vanish, with all those financers as well (hope we all remember) but technology would leave a mark on the society. It’s better to avoid such a “liquidity trap”-in future. But what about the fat pay checks of Wall-Street hunkers? They got some lesson by investing in the wind and air of Wall-Street. Balloon bubbled and blew off. So, they opted for $1 pay checks. That’s a surreal austerity.

What’s required is investment in something productive-human capital, as Warren Buffet once said. And that means growth which means surplus, and no future debt concern-no hangover episodes. It is true that extraordinary growth leads to surplus- China is already there, and there is oversupply of growth in China (trying hard to cool it off). So, it’s better to emulate and get stimulated rather than to sit back and think over it again, what went wrong.

Rational choice! That’s what the Scientific Committee on Research presented as a report to the then President Roosevelt by Vannevar Bush, Director of Office, Science R&D which read as, “Science the Endless Frontier”.

Full report: http://www.nsf.gov/about/history/vbush1945.htm#ch1.1

This is vital, just to evolve not to devolve and fall back behind.
Obama administration had few options. On one hand, a credit downgrade would have raised borrowing costs. On the other, an abrupt default, well, you can guess. So in some tune, it is much like a credible plan to reduce debt by at least $2 trillion over 10 years. But to some noted economists, fiscal consolidation at the midst of a crisis of this sort is not a receptive action. That was attempted before, in 1937 following the Great depression and which led to a greater misery. But it’s not that austerity measures do not help at all. It worked miracle following the German reunification when East Germany was absorbed and build by the theory based on reducing spending and raising taxes.

Why it’s struggling with Greece then? And why it won’t work with America anyway?
East Germany has been an eastern bloc nation post WWII under the Soviet proscribed communist zone. The sphere of influence was arguably, some sort of communist sponsored economic hardship-molded in austerity regime and so, ‘that stuff’ was already there, as part and parcel. Hence nothing new when compared to the dream of an economic autonomy and liberty that the West Germany already had. In another tune, it was not America in that sense. They accepted what was destined to be provided by the West Germany post reunification. And they accepted the challenge. They did well. While, Greece going by their charismatic survival of great pantheons and a hedonistic history in profligacy, that’s not enough. Nobody wants to lose something when one gets used to the stuff. That’s addiction.

So austerity drive won’t work for America.

The point is, Growth creates expectation-Deflation results in anxiety, and more austerity!
Can’t say whether George Bush & Co. was right or wrong-but Vannevar Bush was in fact, correct in 1945. That’s a ‘Bush’ legacy. Follow it up!

Source: IHT, Bloomberg, Reuters.

Learning the art of defaulting!

Well, it’s almost rush hour time at the White House. That reminds me of Jackie Chan.

Yes, perhaps, the Obama team must be pursuing something-some kind of ‘fiscal miracle’ much acrobatically at the last hour. They don’t need stuntmen. They are ought to do the stunts by themselves. Something special, that would ensure that he keeps his last pledge. Just to make certain that the rest of the world worry less about the debt hangover III episode.

And keep faith in American economy, he says amongst all those “Rumble in the Whitehouse”.

That’s not a bad saying. After all, people tend to work hard under pressure, and ideas flourish better under stress, which I buy, ‘sometimes default pressure is a welcoming stimulus for a lame economy’.

However, in fear of losing sovereign credit status and to prove the credibility of the government in handling crisis, the crisis management team has swung in full action to avert an inevitable default. What better can they do? Work hard- it’s now or never!

It seems they are working really hard to counter all odds.

Indeed, it wouldn’t have gone so far if the Washington would have managed endogenous (domestic) deficits with prudency that has now bubbled into exogenous (external) debt. Well, the blame game goes on...

There is a lesson to be learned from this violent yet lurid episode. Be rational.

Yet, for all those countries that does not have sustainable fiscal policies and are in the act of merrymaking with their fiscal ascendancy, this is a perfect time to rethink about fiscal prudency. Else, they will need to perform stunts in future.

The pitfalls of conspicuously raising debt ceilings are evident as it laid the foundation stone for many a country toward defaulting on their sovereign debts. Consider Italy- the tenth largest in the world and fifth largest economy in the eurozone by output measured at $2.01 trillion(2010), has a debt ratio to GDP at 119%. The fact is, borrowing costs are increasing for Italy and a rise above 6% risks contagion. The cost of debt financing now stands at 5.67% for Italy. Even Germany is not spared and has debt-to-GDP ratio at 83%. For instance, just concerns about high debt induce a rise in borrowing costs similar as mouthwatering happens when we think of sausages (Pavlov was right about dogs!). Sausages are to cost more as investors are always fine-tuned to drive borrowing costs to unsustainable levels. Can’t blame them, it’s their money chick.

And when there are the Republicans up in arms against the Democrats, Italy is not far back. There is an ongoing tussle between Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti and Prime Minister Berlusconi. They don’t agree and love discordances. That's...what you call animal instinct. Can't blame, we all have this!

Italy has few options to avoid default, and some options not to. How? By selling more debt by issuing more bonds. Yes, that’s the tip. Italy issues largest amounts of bonds in the Eurozone. It is a cunning jackal in E.U. But that made Italy’s accumulated debt load surpass 119% of GDP. Tough job for the new IMF boss only if Italy defaults! Rating agencies are more cautious since the days of subprime blame game started, and they would not hesitate declaring a country as ‘selective default’ or cut ratings outright.

Nobody wants to take the blame.

It seems that they are into some competition of borrowing and selling debt. Being proud owner of debt is now a fad and fashion. But this fashion was more prevalent among the emerging markets a few decades ago. Yehee! Times have changed but they have not!

It seems now that the IMF boss Lagarde is following the legacy of Bernanke and President Obama by inheriting nothing at all!

An assessment of debt-burdened euro area reveals more crowning jewels. This growing turmoil in the financial markets is leading to head spinoff spooky dog trails, making one country a bedfellow to another. What a theatrical performance!

Greece has three potential and active lenders, the IMF, ECB and the EC. But these institutions are having many borrowers queuing up for alms. And the IMF and the ECB are out to reducing burdens on Greece by cutting their interest rates and extending loan maturities as well, helping buyback their bonds above all, with two tranches of bailout packages. It’s urgent that ECB should look into governance reforms in the eurozone area.

But money doesn’t grow in plants. They grow by practice of hard labor and productivity. These lenders ought to think about financing bailouts that is growing by the day, and emerging by night. And that’s about economic growth. But eurozone countries are not growing and that’s troubling for these lenders of last resort.

Germany has well learned the lesson when it tasted recession at the very beginning of this millennium (2003) at the same time, when the world started to walk into the path of bubbly stardom. However, Germany revived their economy, and now being on a remarkably high growth territory, has become neighbor’s envy but owner’s (Merkel’s) pride.

Endless bouts of austerity may lead to stagnant growth and expanding bailout funds is putting pressure on the euro currency. And following all this, they then have another job to perform- resuscitating the capital market reputation of sovereign defaulters.

So, Obama team must be at something between the two ends of a hotdog- which is better, defaulting on the external debt or tighter macroeconomic measures?

And who knows and cares about some “other hidden debts” of the government?

The real fact is, every button has a hole. The question is, how big it is?

Source: IHT